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Table 2 Overview of the average performance of the optimization methods in all traits and scenarios measured as the percentage of gain in area under the curve (AUC) relative to random sampling

From: Maximizing efficiency in sunflower breeding through historical data optimization

Optimization type

Optimization methods

Test set year 6

Test set year 7

Global

average

Variance

Trait

CS

year 5

CS

year 4-5

CS

year 3–5

CS

year 2–5

CS

year 1–5

Test set

average

CS

year 6

CS

year 5–6

CS

year 4-6

CS

year 3–6

CS

year 2–6

CS

year 1–6

Test set

average

Genetic-based

Avg_GRM_self

− 1.17

2.89

1.11

− 0.94

− 0.11

0.36

2.25

3.46

1.51

0.13

− 0.5

0.47

1.22

0.83

2.41

YLD

Avg_GRM_MinMax

0.37

2.35

0.78

0.12

0.64

0.85

0.54

3.64

1.6

− 0.44

− 0.58

0.8

0.93

0.89

1.52

PCA_CDmean

0.25

1.94

0.51

1.43

1.38

1.1

0.27

2.54

1.07

− 1.96

− 0.93

− 1.43

− 0.07

0.46

2.01

Mixed

PLS_CDmean

0.6

1.86

2.1

0.01

1.8

1.27

− 0.06

3.41

1.21

− 1.63

− 1.33

− 0.25

0.23

0.7

2.36

Tails_GEGVs

0.3

4.83

7.66

4.55

7.35

4.94

2.22

3.02

1.48

− 1.35

1.55

0.66

1.26

2.93

8.31

Phenotypic-based

Tails

0.53

5.98

3.72

2.38

4.07

3.34

4.93

6.38

5.97

3.99

3.93

3.83

4.84

4.16

2.88

Scenario average

0.15

3.31

2.65

1.26

2.52

1.98

1.69

3.74

2.14

− 0.21

0.36

0.68

1.4

1.66

1.76

 

Test set average

  

1.98

    

1.4

   

1.66

0.09

Genetic-based

Avg_GRM_self

1.18

1.85

2.06

0.41

− 0.34

1.03

0.05

− 0.38

1.53

0.53

2.31

1.48

0.92

0.97

0.93

GM

Avg_GRM_MinMax

1.52

2.18

1.43

0.55

0.65

1.27

1.08

− 0.05

0.98

1.18

2.17

1.08

1.07

1.16

0.44

PCA_CDmean

− 0.74

0.43

0.48

− 0.42

− 0.63

− 0.18

− 0.57

0.52

0.37

− 0.13

1.62

0.24

0.34

0.11

0.48

Mixed

PLS_CDmean

0.03

− 0.06

− 0.33

− 0.43

− 1.27

− 0.41

− 1.28

− 1.37

− 0.25

− 0.74

0.18

0.98

− 0.41

− 0.41

0.52

Tails_GEGVs

− 3.82

0.2

− 1.19

0.71

1.09

− 0.6

2.49

1.69

− 2.22

− 3.16

− 5.06

− 4.58

− 1.81

− 1.26

7.09

Phenotypic-based

Tails

− 8.5

− 0.12

− 1.31

0.06

0.92

− 1.79

3.8

2.11

1.54

1.73

0.89

0.43

1.75

0.14

9.98

Scenario Average

− 1.72

0.75

0.19

0.15

0.07

− 0.11

0.93

0.42

0.32

− 0.1

0.35

− 0.06

0.31

0.12

0.47

 

Test set Average

  

− 0.11

     

0.31

  

0.12

0.05

Genetic-based

Avg_GRM_self

3.11

1.59

2.05

0.94

1.41

1.82

0.72

− 0.61

− 0.05

− 0.49

0.46

− 0.37

− 0.06

0.8

1.38

OIL

Avg_GRM_MinMax

2.08

1.04

1.36

1.04

1.75

1.45

1.77

− 0.7

0.26

− 0.42

− 0.02

0.05

0.16

0.75

0.91

PCA_CDmean

0.06

1.49

0.91

0.45

0.84

0.75

1.51

0.71

0.48

0.26

0.41

− 0.49

0.48

0.6

0.35

Mixed

PLS_CDmean

0.34

0.27

0.89

0.49

0.35

0.47

3.01

1.08

− 0.72

− 0.63

− 0.09

− 0.34

0.38

0.42

1.06

Tails_GEGVs

− 11.97

− 3.34

− 1.31

− 1.49

− 2.04

− 4.03

1.52

− 3.67

− 4.23

− 3.9

− 1.5

− 0.22

− 2.00

− 2.92

11.97

Phenotypic-based

Tails

− 8.1

0.49

− 0.67

− 1.39

0.47

− 1.84

2.78

− 0.08

0.05

1.5

0.62

0.46

0.89

− 0.35

7.77

Scenario Average

− 2.41

0.26

0.54

0.01

0.46

− 0.23

1.89

− 0.54

− 0.7

− 0.61

− 0.02

− 0.15

− 0.02

− 0.12

1.1

 

Test set Average

  

− 0.23

     

− 0.02

  

− 0.12

0.01

  1. The optimization methods are classified based on the type of input they require, i.e. Genetic-based, Phenotypic-based, and Mixed. The “Scenario Average” rows display the average performance of each scenario (test set and candidate set years combination) across optimization methods. The “Test set Average” column provides the average performance within a given test set across candidate sets, while the “Test set Average” rows display the average performance across optimization methods. Additionally, the figure presents the global average performance across scenarios for each optimization method, along with its corresponding variance